Capital flows, one number.
A lifecycle trilogy — Form, Work, Return — four cycle reads on concentration, cost, confidence, and stress, and four flow reads on the external account, the domestic base, financial conditions, and access. Methodology public, sources cited, revisions flagged.
Eleven views, but — by our own factor analysis — about four independent dimensions of signal: the cycle, external flows, efficiency & stress, and cost & access. We present the candor, not just the count.
Scale note · most indices read 100 = base (“% above mid-2024”); CRI, CSI, EVI & DCI are z-scored (100 = their 24-month average), so cross-index levels aren't directly comparable — the Cycle Clock re-standardises every index before combining.
Capital forms fast (159) and comes back briskly (113) — but works only at baseline (102). High churn, flat productivity.
Where capital pools (115), what it costs (124), the mood before it moves (111), and where it cracks (105). For cost and stress, a rising number is a warning.
The marginal flows that set prices and the access policy worries about. Foreign money leaving (105) versus home money arriving (115); the financial weather (110); and whether capital reaches the many (140). For External and Conditions, a rising number is a warning.
Formation hot, efficiency flat, stress rising — and now the cross-flows: foreigners out (105), domestics in (115). The late-cycle signature. See the CEI quadrant, External Vulnerability, and the Stress fault lines.
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