Capital Confidence Index.
Forward sentiment across households, founders, and allocators — built to lead activity by two to three quarters.
A split screen: households hopeful (RBI future-expectations at 123) while allocators sit on $86bn of dry powder and deploy 32% less. Main Street optimism, Dalal Street restraint. The index reads 111 — confidence firming but tepid.
Latest reads anchor to official 2025 releases (cited per signal).
The RBI Consumer Confidence current-situation read — Main Street's view of the here and now.
Source ↗ RBI Consumer Confidence Survey / CEIC, Jan 2026The RBI future-expectations read — households' one-year-ahead optimism, firmly above neutral.
Source ↗ RBI Consumer Confidence Survey / CEIC, Jan 2026How keen general partners are to deploy in the next two quarters — the supply side of conviction.
Source ↗ Gravitywell GP/LP Pulse (illustrative) + Bain dry powderLimited partners' appetite to commit fresh capital — the demand for new fund vintages.
Source ↗ Gravitywell GP/LP Pulse (illustrative)How fast committed-but-uncalled capital is actually being put to work — conviction made real.
Source ↗ Business Standard / Bain, 2025Smoothed, rebased, winsorised, weighted.
Households (RBI surveys), allocators (GP/LP intent), and the real deployment pace — confidence triangulated, not taken from one mood-ring.
The GP/LP Pulse is Gravitywell's own panel. Sentiment data nobody else aggregates is what makes a confidence index defensible — and forward-looking.
Five pillars at 20% each, 3-month averaged and rebased to mid-2024. No single survey round can swing the headline.
Intent precedes action. The index is tuned to lead deployment and capex by two to three quarters — validated against the Formation Index that follows it.
Households can be hopeful while allocators sit on their hands. The index surfaces that divergence rather than averaging it away.
- · Survey bias — the GP/LP Pulse is panel-based and illustrative here; production runs publish sample size and response rate.
- · Soft vs hard — sentiment can decouple from action; the dry-powder-pace pillar grounds the read in real deployment.
- · Neutral lines differ — RBI indices centre on 100, Pulse on 50; each is rebased to its own base before weighting.
- · Optimism lag — future-expectations can stay high into a downturn; breadth and the Stress Index are the cross-check.
Data vintage June 2026. Macro pillars use official RBI Consumer Confidence series (CEIC); the dry-powder-pace pillar uses Business Standard / Bain. The GP and LP intent pillars are Gravitywell's own GP/LP Pulse panel — shown here as illustrative; production runs publish sample size and response rate. This survey layer is the index's moat.
Methodology v3.1 (2026-06). Built to the OECD/JRC composite-indicator handbook and disclosed toward the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks: distance-to-reference normalisation, 3-month smoothing, a flagged contribution cap, weighted aggregation, plus a drop-one-pillar uncertainty band, an equal-weight robustness cross-check, and a data-coverage ratio (all shown above). Known limitation: the 24-month panel is too short for robust seasonal adjustment — India's March fiscal-year-end spikes are not yet removed. Series are point-in-time; published values are not silently restated.
The mood before the money.
The Capital Confidence Index and the GP/LP Pulse update every month — built to lead deployment.