India, read in numbers.

Q1 FY27 beat every official estimate, prompting the RBI to raise its full-year view to 6.7% on 5 August. Growth was broad-based across services, manufacturing, construction and investment spending.

Manufacturing +7.3%, electricity +8.7%, capital goods +16.1% — but mining contracted −0.9%. Still a healthy print, just off June's peak.

Soft domestic demand pushed the survey to its weakest pace since the pandemic recovery began. The hard data (IIP, credit) still looks better than the soft data feels.

Headline ticked up but new orders are the softest in years: firms are hiring ahead of demand, a bet on the RBI's raised growth call.

A second month above target. The August MOSPI print — due mid-September — decides whether 4.45% is a floor or the cycle peak.

The elevated level reflects the rebased series and a hot fuel/power print (20.1%, still down from June's 27.4%) — a base-year artefact more than a demand signal.

Food, restaurants and personal care drove the July print; an uneven monsoon is the upside risk the MPC named.

Ex food & fuel holds near target: the July jump is mostly food and oil pass-through, which is why the MPC waited rather than tightened.

Held unanimously on 5 August: the RBI wants 'greater clarity' on inflation before moving. A cut needs CPI back under 4%.

Unchanged since July's CPI print is still the latest: the real-rate cushion holds at half its June level pending the August inflation read.

Eased off the 7% test on record FCNR(B) inflows ($127bn vs ~$90bn expected), but held near a 10-month high through end-August.

Spreads held wide; August's IPO+QIP tape (₹24,194 cr) cooled from July's 20-month high but stayed the busiest August by deal count in 2026.

Industry +20%, services +23%, personal loans +16.2%, agriculture +17%: broad-based and still accelerating — the deployment backdrop PE was waiting for, and one the RBI will watch for froth.

A second straight monthly fall as Brent's US–Iran spike weighed, even with FPIs buying and volatility asleep: the market and the macro are pulling in opposite directions.

Valuation support held through August's fall: cheap-vs-history still needs Q2 FY27 earnings to become cheap-vs-future.

The yield gap stays wide as the G-sec anchor holds near 7%: rates remain the competition under the 'cheap P/E' story.

Vol keeps easing even as Brent spikes ~15%: equities are pricing the oil shock as transient, same as in July.

Listed India has held above $5tn since first crossing it in June, even through August's index fall — breadth beyond the Nifty is cushioning the headline.

FPIs bought for a second straight month, the largest monthly inflow in 23 months, while DIIs kept a record pace — CY26 domestic buying has topped ₹5 lakh cr for a third straight year.

The RBI has fully rebuilt the buffer it spent in the spring, via $136.4bn of FCNR(B)/ECB swap inflows since June — reserve adequacy is no longer a live worry.

Record FCNR(B) inflows drove the rupee's strongest month in seven years, reversing July's re-weakening even as oil spiked again.

The actual print landed almost exactly on the prior estimate: merchandise deficit widened to $86.1bn but a $51.6bn services surplus and $42.9bn of remittances absorbed most of it.

Imports are outrunning exports across the quarter; September's Iran-driven oil spike is a live risk to the same line for Q2.

Still the last confirmed print: outflows exceeded inflows in May for the first time in three months. The RBI's bulletin lag means this line is the stalest on the board.

Rising but moderate vs GDP; reserves now cover it more than comfortably given August's record buffer.

The real exchange rate corrected: the rupee is more export-competitive than the nominal suggests.

Deficit control is tracking ahead of last year's pace: a credible glide-path signal four months into the fiscal year.

Edging down toward the medium-term anchor: a structural positive for the rating.

Import-linked GST (+29%) far outpaced domestic (+9.3%) — buoyant, but a meaningful share is the oil bill talking, same story as July.

The short-run distress measure eased and LFPR rose to 55.4% — confirms the headline annual rate isn't masking a deteriorating monthly trend.

The annual headline stays low; the fresher monthly CWS series above is the more current read on near-term labour distress.

Participation climbing, led by rural women: a structural-demand and formalisation positive.

July's rebound is the sharpest monthly move in the deployment tape this year — the second half is opening far better than H1's soft trend line.

August's value rebounded on fewer deals (88 vs 100 a year ago): bigger average tickets, same choppy venture tape.

The LP layer keeps re-committing at scale into few hands — Accel's fast, oversubscribed close is the latest evidence the mega-fund pattern is intact.

The exit tape stayed soft through H1 — which is exactly why August's IPO pipeline (Zetwerk, Atomberg filings) matters for the DPI story into year-end.

AI keeps absorbing a rising share of a flat overall pie, now mostly via smaller application-layer checks rather than another headline mega-round.