Gravitywell.Research
The index · Monthly · Live

Capital Gravity Index.

How tightly India's capital clusters — into a few funds, sectors, cities, and mega-deals.

Latest reading · Jun 2026
115.1
MoM -0.2%YoY +5.6%
Breadth · lenses rising
0%
Uncertainty band112117Equal-weight115.5Data coverage80%
CodeGWR-CGI-IN
GeographyIndia
CadenceMonthly
Base100 = mid-2024
VintageJune 2026
The headline index

Capital is clustering, not spreading. Three cities took 79% of 2025 startup money; five sectors took 72%. The index sits at 115 — gravity intensifying 6% over the year.

98103107112117BASE 100115.1Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025Apr 2025Jul 2025Oct 2025Jan 2026Jun 2026
The 5 lenses

Latest reads anchor to official 2025 releases (cited per lense).

Top-3 City Share
25% wt
79%
Bengaluru, Delhi-NCR & Mumbai took 79% of 2025 startup capital

Share of startup capital landing in just three metros — the geographic pull of the ecosystem.

Source ↗ Inc42 / Business Standard, 2025
Top-5 Sector Share
20% wt
72%
AI/SaaS, fintech, consumer, healthtech & climate

Concentration of deal value in the five hottest sectors — how narrow the thesis has become.

Source ↗ Entrepreneur India / Bain VC, 2025
Mega-Deal Share
20% wt
≈60%
$100m+ rounds dominate as investors turn selective

Share of capital in $100m+ rounds — how much flows to a handful of category leaders.

Source ↗ Bain India VC / Kalviro, 2025
Top-10 Fund Share
20% wt
≈64%
fundraising clusters into $100m+ vehicles

Share of fresh fund capital captured by the ten largest vehicles — concentration at the LP layer.

Source ↗ Bain India PE/VC, 2025
Allocation HHI
15% wt
rising
Herfindahl concentration climbed through 2025

A Herfindahl read across the allocation map — the single-number measure of how lumpy capital has become.

Source ↗ Gravitywell (composite of above)
Composite

Smoothed, rebased, winsorised, weighted.

115.1.
How it's built
01
Five lenses on clustering

City, sector, deal-size, fund, and a Herfindahl roll-up — concentration measured at every layer of the capital stack, not just one.

02
Shares, then rebase

Each pillar is a concentration share. We smooth on a 3-month average and rebase to 100 at mid-2024 so a rising index unambiguously means tightening.

03
Weighted composite

City 25% · sector 20% · mega-deal 20% · top-10 fund 20% · HHI 15%. Geography and sector carry the most weight — they move the narrative.

04
Winsorised

Sub-indices are clamped to a [50, 180] band so no single lens (a one-quarter mega-deal spike) can overstate concentration.

05
Read against breadth

Rising gravity with falling deal count = capital pooling into fewer hands. That is the signal allocators and founders both watch.

Weights
Top-3 City Share
25%
Top-5 Sector Share
20%
Mega-Deal Share
20%
Top-10 Fund Share
20%
Allocation HHI
15%
What we guard against
  • · Mega-deal lumpiness — one jumbo round can spike a quarter; winsorisation and the 3-month average dampen it.
  • · Definitional drift — 'sector' taxonomies shift; the universe and buckets are fixed at period start.
  • · Share ≠ size — a rising share on a shrinking base still means concentration, and is flagged as such.
  • · Survivorship — only funded entities appear; the unfunded long tail is invisible by construction.

Data vintage June 2026. Latest reads anchor to official 2025 releases — Inc42 (city), Entrepreneur India / Bain (sector & fund), and Bain India VC (mega-deals). The Herfindahl roll-up is Gravitywell's composite of the underlying shares; the within-period monthly distribution is a reconstruction that reconciles to the cited primary sources.

Methodology v3.1 (2026-06). Built to the OECD/JRC composite-indicator handbook and disclosed toward the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks: distance-to-reference normalisation, 3-month smoothing, a flagged contribution cap, weighted aggregation, plus a drop-one-pillar uncertainty band, an equal-weight robustness cross-check, and a data-coverage ratio (all shown above). Known limitation: the 24-month panel is too short for robust seasonal adjustment — India's March fiscal-year-end spikes are not yet removed. Series are point-in-time; published values are not silently restated.

Where capital pools, monthly.

The Capital Gravity Index and its city, sector, and fund breakdowns update every month.

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