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The index · Monthly · Live

Capital Access Index.

Whether capital reaches the broad economy — MSME credit, tier-2/3 funding, and first-time borrowers, not just the metros.

Latest reading · Jun 2026
140.4
MoM +0.4%YoY +14.6%
Breadth · reach gauges rising
60%
Uncertainty band133146Equal-weight141.7Data coverage80%Capped ⚠privcredit
CodeGWR-CAI-IN
GeographyIndia
CadenceMonthly
Base100 = mid-2024
VintageJune 2026
The headline index

The policy question the rest of the suite ignores: does capital reach the broad economy? Only ~20% of MSME credit demand is met (up from 14%, vs China 37%, US 50%) — a ₹20–25 lakh cr gap. The index reads 140 — access widening 15% YoY, but from a low base. Concentration (Gravity) is the disease; access is the cure.

94107120133145BASE 100140.4Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025Apr 2025Jul 2025Oct 2025Jan 2026Jun 2026
The 5 reach gauges

Latest reads anchor to official 2025 releases (cited per reach gauge).

MSME Demand Met
30% wt
≈20%
up from 14%, but a ₹20–25 lakh cr gap still unmet

Share of MSME credit demand met through formal channels — the headline inclusion gap. Higher = wider access.

Source ↗ NITI Aayog / Policy Circle, 2025
New Formal Borrowers
20% wt
3.68 cr
of 6.35 cr Udyam MSMEs have ever accessed formal credit

Udyam-registered MSMEs that have ever accessed formal credit — the on-ramp into the financial system. Higher = wider.

Source ↗ MSME Ministry / NITI Aayog, 2025
Tier-2/3 Funding Share
20% wt
rising
capital slowly spreading beyond Bengaluru-Delhi-Mumbai

Share of capital reaching beyond the top metros — the geographic democratisation of finance. Higher = broader.

Source ↗ Inc42 / Business Standard, 2026
Private-Credit Reach
15% wt
$12.4 bn
private credit (+35%) plugging the mid-market bank gap

Private credit filling the bank gap for mid-market and underserved borrowers. Higher = more alternative access.

Source ↗ EY India Private Credit, 2025
Underserved Access
15% wt
improving
but micro-enterprises remain 95% of the unmet gap

Reach to women-led, first-generation, and micro enterprises — the deepest part of the gap. Higher = more inclusive.

Source ↗ Ideas for India / NextBillion, 2025
Composite

Smoothed, rebased, winsorised, weighted.

140.4.
How it's built
01
Five reach gauges

MSME demand met, new formal borrowers, tier-2/3 share, private-credit reach, and underserved access — the breadth of capital, not its volume.

02
Higher is broader

Every pillar points up for inclusion. A rising CAI means capital is reaching further into the real economy.

03
The mirror of Gravity

The Capital Gravity Index measures how capital concentrates; CAI measures whether it also reaches the many. Read them as a pair.

04
Level matters as much as trend

The index can rise while the absolute gap stays vast — only 20% of MSME demand is met. The desk note always states the level, not just the move.

05
A policy instrument

Built for government users: it tracks whether credit-guarantee schemes, account aggregators, and supply-chain finance are actually widening access.

Weights
MSME Demand Met
30%
New Formal Borrowers
20%
Tier-2/3 Funding Share
20%
Private-Credit Reach
15%
Underserved Access
15%
What we guard against
  • · Access ≠ adequacy — a borrower reached may still be underfunded; the demand-met pillar grounds the read in sufficiency.
  • · Registration bias — Udyam coverage grows over time; the universe is normalised so registration drift isn't read as access.
  • · Private-credit reach is double-edged — it widens access but adds shadow leverage; cross-read with the Stress Index.
  • · Survey lag — inclusion metrics revise slowly; vintages are stamped and low-frequency pillars carried with a flag.

Data vintage June 2026. Latest reads anchor to NITI Aayog / Policy Circle (MSME gap), the MSME Ministry (Udyam credit), Inc42 / Business Standard (tier-2/3), EY (private-credit reach), and Ideas for India (underserved access). Inclusion metrics revise slowly; low-frequency pillars are carried with a flag. Monthly path reconstructed.

Methodology v3.1 (2026-06). Built to the OECD/JRC composite-indicator handbook and disclosed toward the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks: distance-to-reference normalisation, 3-month smoothing, a flagged contribution cap, weighted aggregation, plus a drop-one-pillar uncertainty band, an equal-weight robustness cross-check, and a data-coverage ratio (all shown above). Known limitation: the 24-month panel is too short for robust seasonal adjustment — India's March fiscal-year-end spikes are not yet removed. Series are point-in-time; published values are not silently restated.

Does capital reach? Monthly.

The Capital Access Index tracks whether finance reaches MSMEs, tier-2/3 towns, and first-time borrowers — every month.

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