Gravitywell.Research
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Capital Efficiency Index.

How hard each rupee of capital actually works — the productivity of India's investment, in one number. The companion to the Capital Formation Index.

Latest reading · Jun 2026
102.4
MoM -0.2%YoY -0.8%
Breadth · pillars rising
20%
CodeGWR-CEI-IN
GeographyIndia
CadenceMonthly
Base100 = mid-2024
VintageJune 2026
Band98–110
Coverage80%
The call · Formation × Efficiency

Efficiency only means something next to volume. Formation is running 59% above baseline while efficiency sits near it — the trail is drifting right and flat, toward bubble-watch.

STEADY GROWTHBOOMSTAGNATIONBUBBLE WATCHNowCapital Formation (CFI)Capital Efficiency (CEI)
· Faint dots = path since Jul 2024 Red = todayDashed crosshair = base 100
The efficiency index

100 = mid-2024 efficiency (trailing 3-month average).

99100102103104BASE 100102.4Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025Apr 2025Jul 2025Oct 2025Jan 2026Jun 2026
The five pillars

Two are inverted — for ICOR and stalled projects, lower is leaner. Latest reads anchor to official 2025 releases.

Capital Intensity (ICOR)
INV30% wt
≈5.2
₹5.2 of capital per ₹1 of extra output (up from FY22's 3.5); GFCF 34.5% of GDP yet private capex subdued

Incremental capital-output ratio — rupees of investment needed per unit of extra GDP. Lower is leaner. Inverted.

Source ↗ The Core IAS / Vajiram, 2026
Corporate RoCE
25% wt
10.47%
PAT-to-capital, a 14-year high (Sep 2025, 3,307 firms)

Profit relative to capital employed across the listed non-financial universe. Higher is better.

Source ↗ Business Standard / Capitaline, Dec 2025
Asset Turnover
15% wt
≈0.86×
revenue per rupee of assets — broadly flat

Revenue generated per rupee of assets — how busy the capital base is. Higher is better.

Source ↗ Gravitywell estimate (Capitaline aggregate)
Capacity Utilisation
15% wt
75.6%
manufacturing capacity used, Q3 FY26 (RBI OBICUS)

Share of manufacturing capacity actually in use. Idle plant is idle capital. Higher is better.

Source ↗ RBI OBICUS / CEIC, 2026
Stalled-Project Ratio
INV15% wt
4.61%
projects stalled — near a 12-year low, edging up on capex softness

Share of outstanding project capital stuck and not commissioning. Lower is leaner. Inverted.

Source ↗ CMIE / Business Standard, 2025
Composite

Inverted where needed, smoothed, rebased, weighted.

102.4.
How it's built
01
Five efficiency pillars

Capital intensity (ICOR), corporate RoCE, asset turnover, capacity utilisation, and the stalled-project ratio — the five readouts of whether deployed capital is actually producing.

02
Invert what should be low

ICOR and the stalled ratio are 'lower is better' — they are reciprocal-rebased so that leaner capital intensity and fewer stuck projects lift the index, not drag it.

03
Smooth, rebase, weight

Trailing 3-month average to cut noise, rebase each pillar to 100 at the mid-2024 window, then weight: ICOR 30% · RoCE 25% · turnover 15% · capacity 15% · stalled 15%.

04
Read it against the CFI

Efficiency only means something next to volume. CEI is designed to be plotted against the Capital Formation Index — the gap between the two is the signal.

05
The quadrant is the call

High formation + high efficiency = genuine boom. High formation + flat efficiency = bubble watch. The trajectory through the quadrant is the firm's headline macro read.

Weights
Capital Intensity (ICOR) ·inv
30%
Corporate RoCE
25%
Asset Turnover
15%
Capacity Utilisation
15%
Stalled-Project Ratio ·inv
15%
What we guard against
  • · ICOR is noisy quarter-to-quarter — only trailing multi-period readings are used, never a single print.
  • · RoCE reports annually with a lag — vintages are stamped and the series interpolated, not invented.
  • · Sector-mix shifts can flatter asset turnover — the universe is fixed at period start to keep it honest.
  • · Capacity utilisation is manufacturing-only — it proxies, not captures, services-sector efficiency.

Data vintage June 2026. Latest reads anchor to official releases — RBI OBICUS (capacity), CMIE (stalled projects, capex), Capitaline / Business Standard (RoCE), and the ICOR framework (MOSPI/PIB). The within-period monthly distribution is Gravitywell's reconstruction; pillar reads reconcile to the cited primary sources. ICOR and RoCE are inherently low-frequency and are interpolated, not invented — vintages stamped, revisions flagged.

Volume and quality, monthly.

The Capital Efficiency Index and the quadrant call update every month — with the full pillar breakdown.

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