The What-If Series

Scenario dossiers.

Each dossier studies a defined shock the most rational way: it states the activation condition, weighs it against base rates, separates magnitude from probability, traces the transmission first order to third, and ends in positioning. Conditional scenarios, not forecasts.

GWW-2026-001Jul 2026

What if the AI bubble bursts?

A real bubble on capex, concentration and financing structure, but funded at its core from cash flow — so the mispriced legs are the second-order credit event and the third-order growth shock, not the fall. Convex hedge, not a call.

P ≈ 20–30% / 24mvs base rate ~10% / 24m · Medium conviction · Cautious

20–30%

P(activation) / 24m · vs base rate ~10%

~$710bn

2026E big-four hyperscaler AI capex

~35%

AI-linked share of S&P 500 market cap

−40/−65%

AI silicon & power de-rate if activated (complex ~−30/−40%)

Conditional scenario analyses, not forecasts. Magnitude and probability are stated separately throughout.